Armada Intelligence
Category archives for: U.S

We Almost Didn’t Mention This. $

It’s all over the news and it happens every July 4th. But, there are enough odd happenings around the country that analysts and the Department of Homeland Security are issuing alerts for this weekend – and we thought we would mention it just out of concern for all of you. According sources, the risk of […]

What We Will be Watching for in Next Week’s Earnings Calls.

That may sound odd, but there are some things that we want to keep an eye on the Q2 earnings calls – and we probably differ from everybody else. Everyone will be focused on profits and forward looking guidance. That’s fine, of course it is fine. But here are our “big 4” items to consider […]

Home Prices Decelerate, But Remain Strong. $

We continue to watch the housing market pretty closely. The S&P Case Shiller 20-City index for April rose 4.9% year-over-year. Shiller basically said that home prices were still strong, but are now decelerating from the strong path of growth they were on earlier in the year. That can actually be a good thing.

Chicago PMI Stays in Contraction. $

The Chicago PMI from the ISM came in below 50 at 49.4 in June. Although this was only a slight level below 50 (which is the midpoint between expansion and contraction), this was the fifth month in a row that it remained below 50.

Consumer Confidence Steady.

Consumer confidence is the best place to start this coverage of economic conditions – a confident consumer should lead to better consumption and consumer spending is still about 70% of GDP. Greater spending, better GDP growth.   Consumer confidence for June came in at 101.4, which is better than last month’s reading but slightly weaker […]

Hectic (Shortened) News Week. $

    There is a tremendous amount of business and financial news breaking almost every hour. We want to try and keep you apprised of the developments so we are going to use a slightly different version of the EIB to do so.

Continued Good News on the Labor Front

FRED062415

In general terms economists assert that the economy is healthy and creating jobs at a satisfactory pace as long as new claims of unemployment are below 400,000 a month. By that measure the US has been healthy enough for the last four years. The latest data shows that there were only 276,000 new claims for […]

Signs of Inflation? $

CPI

The headlines have been interesting – especially after one reads the words that follow. The latest Consumer Price Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.4% and suddenly the lead headlines have all been about the return of inflation and the impact this may all have on the overall economy and the Fed decision making process. […]

GDPNow Forecast Improves Significantly.

Studying the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s ongoing look at GDP, we see that it has increased its forecast of late. The forecast now shows Q2 GDP trending at 1.9%. That’s still well short of the 3% rate we were looking for and even the Blue Chip Consensus forecast shows that it is trending at about 2.7%, […]

Fed Statement “Dovish”. $

If you are a student of the Federal Reserve and markets, you already know that yesterday was a big day.  The Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve prepared its position on interest rates and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen offered remarks and Q&A to financial reporters on its stance and outlook for the economy.

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