PMI Contradicts Other Measures Comparisons between different data measures are good indicators until the moment that they aren’t. For the last several months there have been some pretty decent correlations between some of the regional economic measures and the more nationally focused Purchasing Manager’s Index. Given this history the analytical community was pretty certain the [...]
Is This End of the American Dream? It would depend on what that dream actually is but if home ownership is still considered at least part of the American Dream there are some signs of erosion that may force a re-think of what “home” will consist of. The rate of home ownership has been rising [...]
Durable Goods Down – What Does This Really Mean? Last week featured a meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee that was both boring and instructive – depending on how closely one looks at the commentary that accompanies these meetings. The boring part is that the FOMC elected to leave rates right where they [...]
Where do the Jobs Come From? This is an issue we have discussed many times in the past and it is likely that we will continue beating it to death given the conversation about employment that takes place during an election year. The creation of jobs in the US is a function of small and [...]
Durable Goods Down – What Does This Really Mean? The headlines have been pretty grim – the most profound drop in the rate of durable goods orders since the recession technically ended in 2009. The implication is that manufacturing has slowed down drastically and can no longer be expected to support the growth of the [...]
Big Manufacturers Report Solid Earnings There is some sense of optimism within the manufacturing sector but there is also some realization that the latest gains will be ephemeral if there is not some improvement in the economic outlook for Europe and a return to growth in Asia. The biggest of the US manufacturers have mostly [...]
Politics Makes Economic Adjustment Impossible The former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve has issued a very stern rebuke to the powers that be in Congress. Donald Kohn is saying bluntly what many have been thinking and thus taking advantage of his retired status. As Vice Chair he was often cited as the voice of [...]
Poole – Inflation is Near Certain but Perhaps Not So Fast The retired head of the St. Louis Fed – William Poole – was an inflation hawk when he was active and now he follows the actions of the Fed closely. His commentary on the inflation threat ought to be taken seriously given that he [...]
Things May not be as Bad as They Look The headlines are all about the potential for another spring time swoon along the lines of what we saw last year and in 2010. The sense of the analysis is that we are seeing sudden weakness in areas that had been doing very well only a [...]
The European Solution to High Unemployment The US is certainly not the only country that is facing high rates of unemployment. Compared to the European rate of 10.2% the US is in great shape at 8.2%. Of course Europe has the same situation that faces the US – rates of jobless vary considerably from country [...]
