The following estimate provides detail on the macro perspective and rationale that drives our Severity Impact Index (page 5). Events are collected, assessed, and analyzed for their impact on conditions that drive National Economic Security. This estimate is fluid and ever-changing – it will change over time with events as they transpire – and we will provide updated estimates monthly.  

Summary: 

If we were to envision a pyramid of economic factors, at the top of the pyramid for those that currently carry the most impact on the US (at a macro level) could be either the current Japan Crisis or global Food Shortages, followed closely by oil prices. Page 5 of this March estimate shows these three elements in the proprietary scoring model Armada has developed. These impacts can be both positive and negative – and in most economic conditions there are winners and losers. Therefore, we call them simply “impacts” on purpose. Many of the conditions throughout the economy can be tied back to one of these macro events for the month of March – and looking ahead into April, the same factors (plus a few secondary factors) are expected to be important to watch.

March Review:

US economic conditions were generally positive for the United States. Manufacturing and retail volumes were stronger and business inventory building activity spurred growth in all transportation sectors (rail, trucking, air cargo, maritime container volumes). The business sales to inventory ratio index remained at some of its lowest levels in more than five years – driven in part by business conservatism and unwillingness to rebuild inventories too quickly into an uncertain demand environment. [This content is for MEMBERS ONLY. Please click Subscribe in the upper right corner to continue.]