Armada Intelligence » Special Interest

Honey Bee’s and California Almonds $

karen — Wed, 08 May 2013 14:25:00 +0000

The Honey Bee population has hit what scientists are calling the “bare minimum” levels in order to keep about $20 billion worth of US agriculture pollinated. Professional bee keepers are still experiencing a massive die-off of honey bee populations – theories abound as to why this is happening – but the effect is fairly wide-spread. Some of the causes mentioned include drought, parasitic mites, and a cold snap in California this year. Most bee keepers are hoping to keep their losses somewhere at 30-50%, but many have reported

Russian Passenger Jet Avoids…One of their own $

karen — Wed, 01 May 2013 17:30:58 +0000

The Difference Between H5N1 and H7N9 $

karen — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 17:49:08 +0000

We’ve touched on a new strain of Avian Flu that is spreading through an isolated part of China – the H7N9 strain. Many of you who have been with us for several years will remember our coverage of the H5N1 avian flu virus – the risk of which is still evident around the lesser developed world. Egypt, Indonesia, China, and many other countries in Asia have fought outbreaks of H5N1 and have culled millions of head of poultry and swine as a result.

H5N1 (not to be mistaken from the more common H1N1 we see in the United States) is a bad form of the flu because it attacks the respiratory system – not the digestive system as we see in the more typical flu strains.

H5N1 is not easily transferred between humans today, it currently resides predominantly in

Anecdote on Auto Inventory

karen — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 23:42:21 +0000

We watch the automotive sector pretty close, and what we are about to highlight is pure anecdote. Looking at dealership lots in a couple of Midwest cities, we have seen a major buildup of new car inventory since the beginning of the year. We’ve watched these lots for years and have seen them go from almost empty in the aftermath of the disaster in Japan in 2011 to fairly balanced through most of last year to what we see now. Not only are primary lots full, but auxiliary lots are also full for the first time in about 5 years.

We will admit that this could be an entirely Midwest phenomenon (hence the risk of the anecdote) and certain models could be experiencing lower inventory because they are more popular – and will continue to create manufacturing demand as a result. But, the credit markets have shown that auto loans have been the second greatest category for consumer credit growth for the last couple of quarters (second to student loans). And maybe that trend is starting to play itself out as most households that are eligible and interesting in making long-term purchases such as a vehicle have done so.

Much of the sales data that we get from the auto sector reports on the “sales” of autos to dealerships. We have to typically use other data to try and figure out how much of that inventory is actually being sold to consumers.

Most of you know that we watch the American Association of Railroads and their weekly carload report closely for signs of changing trends in the country. Motor Vehicle and Parts shipments last year increased in double-digit ranges all year. Against those tougher comparisons, we expected the carload report to be a bit weaker this year, and it has been. The sector is up about 2.3% for the year, but for week 11 of this year, shipments are up 15.6% over last year. So, maybe out anecdote is not that far off and we have seen a significant spike in the last several weeks of inventory building.

What we’ll want to watch is whether the cars are leaving the front of the lot as quick as they are coming in the back of the lot. What we are hinting at is that if there is a hiccup in consumer demand for autos or if the current trend is playing out, we are going to be hearing of a significant overstock for US dealerships in Q2. That’s the scenario that we are watching – to see if that’s the case or if demand continues to consume this inventory.

Armada’s Chris Kuehl on Dutch tv

karen — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 18:32:57 +0000

Chris Kuehl on Dutch tv July 2012 LINK

Is there a Risk of a Major US Uprising?

karen — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 15:31:08 +0000

That sounds so far-fetched that you might be surprised that we would even bring it up. We are fairly straight-forward thinkers at Armada and try not to live in the extremes. But here is the premise that we were hit with by an inquisitive thinker: with significant legislation and executive order being aimed at historically “sacred” segments of the United States, what is the risk of an uprising against the government as a result like we see in some countries worldwide?

We didn’t do much with that question at the time, but a move by the Missouri legislature to not only ban certain types of weapons but to make it illegal to own one (even if purchased prior to the ban), with confiscation without remuneration, and the resulting outrage online of this potential legislation (people saying that they can take their weapons from their cold, dead, hands, etc.), we had to surface the question.

A conspiracy arm of the national population is growing once again. We saw this with Y2K, the 2008 election, the end of the Mayan Calendar, and the 2012 election. Gun and ammunition sales are spiking. Millions of guns have been sold since the discussion of banning certain firearms has been introduced. And, today Cabella’s released earnings and it showed a 12% gain in quarterly sales – largely attributed to the sale of weapons and ammunition.

One fact that the Democratic Party must deal with is this: they won the Electoral College by a landslide. But, in the popular vote, the President had 61.1 million votes to 58.1 million against him. If laws, regulations, and executive orders issued by the President run too far to the left of those 58 million Americans that voted against him, that’s nearly 50% of the US population that is theoretically against various forms of liberalism. The administration runs the risk of further polarizing these two segments of the US population – pushing them further apart on ideological grounds and pushing us to a stage in which we do start to see at least a risk of some significant “uprisings” in the country. These uprisings don’t have to look like Egypt or other third world countries where hundreds of thousands of people take to the streets. It can come in the form of online protests, boycotts of left-leaning entities, physically leaving states that support left-thinking positions, etc.

We don’t condone either side of the equation – we are, and always will be, a pro-business Think Tank. We are just as upset at the right as we are at the left for our current economic situation.

Our rationale for even bringing this issue up is because this polarization and growing “unrest” does begin to affect state welfare and income, the migration of businesses and corporate headquarters, changes in social spending and sentiment, social balance in the country, and the ability of corporations to avoid public ridicule or ostracization.

Public officials need to understand the risk trade-off between securing massive and sweeping legislation that brings needed change – and the advantages of easing into those changes over time. Both the left and the right support actions to help prevent massacres such as the Newtown travesty. There are very differing opinions on how you do that. What public officials need to simply understand is that the country is divided – and for the 61 million US citizens pleased with a given law or proposed move on one end of the spectrum – there are about 58 million strongly opposed to it if it is of the “sweeping” nature. In elections, it may look like an electoral landslide and a mandate to make things happen. On the streets where each individual has an opinion, can act with freedom, and can vocalize their displeasure at any one given action, officials need to remember that a radical move to the left or the right will tick off at least 50% of the US population – and that’s what matters – just ask Egypt.

Antibiotic use in Animals could Lead to Human Weight Gain $

karen — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 18:00:21 +0000

That’s the hypothesis in a recent investigation by Mother Jones. Antibiotics are frequently mixed into the feed of farm animals, in part to fend off frequent infections and in part because they tend to increase weight gain. A study of 11,000 children found that those who were given antibiotics experienced a 22% greater chance of being obese, which took several years to wear off. The weight gain is caused by the

Norovirus Spreading Quickly – Worker Productivity Impact? $

karen — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 17:13:03 +0000

Norovirus is not as dangerous as it sounds. Although it is often mischaracterized as the stomach flu, it is not the flu but a virus that causes gastroenteritis. Symptoms include nausea, stomach cramping, and diarrhea. The reason that we bring this up is because it is hitting unusually hard this year. The US has not reported more than its usual number of cases yet this year, but the volume of cases being reported in Europe, Asia, and other parts of the world is surging. Many of you may have seen that hundreds of people (about 400) took ill on two cruise ships over the holidays – and the diagnosis captured in the press was misdiagnosed as food poisoning. It was Norovirus.

The virus is easily spread between people, typically lasts about 2-3 days, and there

Stop What You Are Doing – the Mayans Are Correct

karen — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 20:47:45 +0000

In a heartfelt commentary that was broadcast all over Australia the Prime Minister – Julia Gillard – stated that the end of the world was at hand and that the Mayan calendar is correct. She bid her fellow citizens good bye and thanked her ace advisors for discovering that the prophecy was true. For those who are not as aware of the impending doom as the PM of Australia the Mayans assert that the world will end on December 21^st.

There are two important things to take from this statement. The first is that at least one world leader has a sense of humor as Gillard agreed to do the piece for a very popular daily comedy show in the country. The second important point is to note that the Mayan’s have thoughtfully ended the world four days before Christmas and since most men don’t start shopping until the 23^rd we will all have saved a lot of money that can be used for the alcohol that is needed when world’s come to an end.

It is also taking place before the deadline for the fiscal cliff and I now understand why they can’t reach a conclusion. They believed the Australian PM and now understand that it simply doesn’t matter what they do.

Self-healing Concrete Nearing Availability

karen — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 16:29:46 +0000

Self-healing concrete could hit the market in the next few years. The concrete contains pockets of limestone-producing bacteria and nutrients for them to feed on. When rainwater enters small cracks in the concrete, the bacteria are activated and consume the food and water to produce limestone, repairing cracks of up to 0.5 millimeters—before they grow larger. In its current state the bacteria adds about 50% to the cost of the concrete, although that number could come down as production scales. However, concrete generally only makes up 1-2% of production costs—far less than maintenance. That means self-healing concrete could produce large long-term construction cost savings.