Armada Intelligence » Top Stories

Copper Weakness and What it really is Telling Us $

karen — Wed, 15 May 2013 18:29:26 +0000

We heard a report today on copper and a debate of sorts with one analyst saying that the drop in copper is a sign that conditions in China (especially) are weaker than we thought. His counterpart believed that the strength of the dollar was the bigger culprit in copper prices.

We’ve said to you many times that copper is one of the most interesting metals because it is a key component in anything with electronics. Copper leads on wiring and copper wiring itself are core components for every electronic device. And, today there are so many different products sold worldwide that have some degree of electronics in them. Therefore, when copper is going up, theoretically there

France is Getting Very Depressed $

karen — Wed, 15 May 2013 18:26:48 +0000

The data that has been emerging from France is about as depressing as it gets and there are many in Europe who now believe that France will be the linchpin as far as recovery is concerned. If France is somehow able to overcome the gloom that has enveloped the economy there will be some hope for the remainder of the Eurozone economy but if all the issues just keep dragging France down the rest of Europe can’t rely on Germany alone to pull them out of the crisis. The numbers are really awful – in some ways worse than

Best of the Worst $

karen — Wed, 15 May 2013 17:50:58 +0000

If one was to have suggested that the US dollar would be considered a strong currency when the interest rate is zero, growth is an anemic 1.5% and the rate of unemployment is 7.5%, there would be many who would urge a serious examination of one’s sanity. It would seem that these conditions are the very epitome of problematic and a recipe for a very weak currency. In fact the US dollar has been considered weak for most of the last few years. Just as in sports it helps to be in a weak division.

Compared to the currency situation in Europe or Japan or the United Kingdom the dollar is

Five Reasons that You Can Go Ahead and Panic Over Those Job Numbers $

karen — Wed, 08 May 2013 14:35:12 +0000

The headlines have been positively glowing and the stock market is in a state of euphoria. The unemployment rate is down to 7.5% and happy days are here again. Frankly, we kind of like being the buzz kill from time to time but there is ample reason to be less than impressed with the latest job numbers.

Number One – Not to state the obvious but 7.5% unemployment is not 4.5% unemployment and neither is it 6%. It is still a full point and half above

Bakken Economic Impact $

karen — Wed, 08 May 2013 14:29:48 +0000

The Minneapolis Federal Reserve published a study that they did regarding the Bakken and its impact on districts as far away as Nebraska. We are going to highlight a series of charts that they included in the study. If you want the full study, you can get it here: Fedgazette Bakken Ripple Effect. The first thing the Fed did was to define the area it would study. It created concentric circles around the production zones in

Intelligence Community Loses Track of Chemical Weapons in Syria? $

karen — Fri, 03 May 2013 18:27:46 +0000

There are some wide-spread reports that various intelligence communities have lost track of the vast number of chemical weapons that were being stored in warehouses in Syria. The Assad Government started moving many of those chemical weapons starting last fall – and initially the intelligence community could track their movement. But since then, those weapons have begun to be split out and are being moved by smaller vehicles that get lost inside buildings and facilities (one vehicle goes in and multiple ones come out) that make it tough to figure out where they are at any one time.

There are also some risks emerging that various para-military groups may be gaining more and more access to these weapons. Not only that, but officials believe that Assad’s forces

Trade Deficit Narrows – But Falling Imports is not a Good Story $

karen — Fri, 03 May 2013 18:13:32 +0000

We’ve seen the data showing concerns that the Chinese market is slowing and we have a lot of sluggishness in just about every global market that we have major international trade with. RTT News released the chart at right that we thought was well done – they do a great job of summarizing various types of data. Looking at the red line, we can see what is happening to the trade deficit – it is narrowing slightly. And looking conversely at the top green line (imports), we can see how it adjusted downward in the latest readings.

The trade deficit actually narrowed $4.8 billion to hit $38.8 billion. We have to understand that the drop in US imports of crude oil and

Something to Watch in the Future $

karen — Fri, 03 May 2013 16:26:59 +0000

The Boston Bombings are getting a lot of attention of late – but for very different reasons than what we want to discuss for a minute. There is a report that posters have started to show up in Grozny depicting Dzhokhar Tsarnaev as “Not Guilty!”. This reminds us a bit of “V” for Vendetta, the movie. Ours is not to debate the validity of the poster – but to talk for just a minute about the potential for a ground-swell of support. What the US does not need is

ISM Services Index Falls in April $

karen — Fri, 03 May 2013 16:23:43 +0000

Like its manufacturing cousin, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business also slowed in April. The report at right is from the ISM and it shows a comparison between both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes – compared to March figures. Again, just to refresh, anything above a reading of 50 is expansion, anything below is contraction. The ISM NMI came in at 53.1, down 1.3 points from 54.4 in March. The only metrics that improved in the month came from the inventory category (mostly retail businesses here) and imports. Interestingly, there is also an inventory sentiment figure that came in showing that it was “too high” at this time – hitting 60.5 points in

Armada’s Chris Kuehl at FABTECH

karen — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 20:29:05 +0000

Chris Kuehl, Managing Director, is featured in the two videos below at the Annual Fabricators and Manufacturer Association Fabtech conference. Dr. Kuehl is speaking on the Fiscal Cliff and other economic insights in both the panel and in the remarks he made afterward in the Forecast Breakfast talk.

Kuehl-CEO-panel (Nov 2012)

FMA Forecast Breakfast Link (Nov 2012)